Data on the trend of trend forecasting

And where we go from here

Lately, I’ve noticed a growing frustration with fashion trends and especially fashion forecasting, both online and in real life. Online, we see poetry on TikTok criticising the endless cycle of new trends to Brenda Hashtag taking a slight dig at TikTok trend forecasters on her podcast — where she said, “Do TikTok trend forecasters even know that real forecasters look at culture and politics to predict trends?” (I bet some of them do). There’s also been a flood of comments on trend-related content saying, “But find your personal style! What about personal style!?” which, ironically, has become a trend in itself — but more on that later.

Poetry accounts criticise the pressure of our current trend cycle (I love this account btw).

@heidsbeckerOverconsumptioncore

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Others are declaring that micro trends are dead and that people are more focused on cultivating a personal style.

@rebecaoksanaare microtrends dead? #microtrends #fashiontrends2024

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Meanwhile, some trend forecasters are calling others out other trend forecasters as fake.

@fashunadicthere’s my trend forecast for 2025… what do you think about this debate! i think it’s fun to have our individual predictions and to not take ourselves too seriously but here’s a TINY snapshot of how actual forecasting is done! #slowfashion #fashiontiktok #fastfashion #trendforecast2023 #trendforecasting #modularclothing

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With all this commentary, I couldn’t help but wonder: have we reached the peak of fashion trend forecasting content? Is the market for TikTok fashion trend forecasters oversaturated? And if so, what’s next?

The data

To get a clearer picture, I decided to dive into some live data from TikTok and Google. I looked at the main hashtags that trend forecasters have been using for their fall fashion predictions to see how these hashtags have been trending over time. First, the obvious: #fallfashion has been steadily increasing in popularity over the past few years. This year, the peak is forecasted to be even higher than last year because interest on August 25, 2024, is already 24% higher than it was on August 25, 2023. While this growth could be attributed to people sharing their outfits more frequently, it still indicates a rising interest in fall fashion content, focusing on what to buy, wear, and style for fall.

Seasonal interest in #fallfashion is projected to increase by 24% compared to last year.

However, specifically labelled trend content is a different story. There was a slow increase and then a very noticeable spike in the spring of this year. When looking into the content behind this spike, it was primarily driven by an influx of fashion prediction and forecasting content around the FW2024 runway shows, and predicting what trends were coming up because of the highly publicised shows (mostly taken from Miu Miu, Chloe, and The Row).

We can see a similar spike and decline in interest for another popular fashion forecasting hashtag #whattowear — which, very literally, tells people what they should be wearing for [insert season].

I would have loved to get the data on #fashionprediction and #fashionforecasting, but with TikTok increasingly restricting their API — I wasn't able to see this data.

Interestingly, when we look at indicators of real-world interest, like Google searches, the picture is quite different. Searches for "fashion trends" (which I assume are people looking for articles mentioning what’s trending, etc.) have been down year-over-year since 2012.

Glimpse data

Data from Glimpse corroborates this trend, showing a steady decline in searches for fall fashion trends over the same period.

Glimpse data

However, people search generally for ‘trend prediction’ and ‘trend prediction jobs’ is up this year, showing a general interest in doing trend forecasting and predictions themselves (rather than searching for other people/resources/articles to do this for them).

Glimpse data

Taken together

So, what does all this tell us? Well, the data didn't align with my original hypothesis. I anticipated a steady increase in the use of hashtags like #fashiontrends or a rise in searches for "fashion trends" on Google, which I thought would indicate that our culture is more obsessed with fashion trends than ever. However, despite the abundance of trend content on TikTok and the height of hashtags like #fashiontrends and #whattowear, Google search data reveals that people aren’t as interested in fashion trends anymore — and haven’t been since 2012.

There are two interpretations of this data:

First: it could underscore the disconnect between TikTok trends and what people are actually wearing in real life. Sure, we can discuss bubble skirts or tankinis being touted as the "trend of the summer," but it's a bit surprising when you actually see someone wearing these trends in person. And seeing it in person almost signals that that person is an Online Person © (Or is that just me? Do you see a consistent wave of TikTok trends out and about in your city? Let me know.)

Second: it could be that, simply, people who are interested in fashion trends are getting it from TikTok and Instagram, and not searching for or reading articles on the topic anymore. This could (potentially) align with the idea that the TikTok trend space is oversaturated.

Of course, this is just my interpretation based on somewhat inconclusive data and a less-than-ideal timeline for this research and post — so I’d love to hear your thoughts.

What’s next

Despite the data being inconclusive, the sentiment online around fashion trends is increasingly negative, whether or not it’s reflected in the available data just yet. So — here are a few thoughts I have on how fashion trend content will evolve over the next year.

How trends will continue to exist.

Fashion trends in 2024 seem to be less about owning the "IT" item or "IT" bag, like in the early 2000s or even up to 2020 (RIP to that House of Sunny dress). Instead, it seems to be more about using general trends — like a wide belt, a suede bag, a pair of capris — to signal that you are a Fashionable Person © while not showing up with the exact same belt/bag/paints as your friends. No one will be wearing the exact same suede bag, but we'll see a variety of bags that fit the material and size requirements set by the trend. This reflects a move away from micro trends or individual pieces, which are now often seen as embarrassing, especially if you wear too many at once. Instead, there's a growing focus on broader themes and sources of inspiration that allow for broader interpretation.

Personal style as a trend.

Ironically, "personal style" has itself become a trend online. This is a bit paradoxical because, while many people online advocate for cultivating a unique style, it's clear that many are still influenced by current trends. I find myself a bit torn on this subject — it's easy to spot pieces in someone's wardrobe, like an adidas samba or a mini skirt, that clearly align with what's trending or is inspired by runway looks and historical fashion cycles. The idea of personal style might suggest freedom from trends, but in reality, it often (but not all the time) just means selecting trends that resonate on a more individual level or are niche enough to only be detected by a fellow Fashionable Person ©.

The format has to shift.

As for the format of trend content, it’s got to change. I don’t mean to call out these creators, I follow and enjoy a lot of their content. But the typical green screen videos in front of collages or Pinterest boards feel tired and often make it difficult to differentiate between accounts/people (especially when we are all talking about similar trends). The script of “Flip flops will be trending this fall, and you’ll see them styled this way, this way, or that way” as a feed of 3-5 Pinterest photos roll through. It leaves us asking — why are they trending, how long have they been trending for, how much longer will this trend last, etc. Ideally, we may also see more in-depth, research-oriented trend forecasting that, in fact, does reference historical fashion or broader social-cultural factors.

(Although I may be just projecting my own hopes, dreams, and intentions for Style Analytics here. In any case, the content will need to evolve to stay relevant and engaging.)

Final thoughts

I'm curious to know how your relationship with trends has evolved over the past few years. What role do fashion trends play in your life now? Please leave a comment if you'd like to elaborate — I would love to hear your thoughts on all of this!