Are trends out for 2024?
Cultural shifts + why we're all tired of the existing trend cycle
I’ve observed a number of people online claiming that trend forecasting is obsolete or that fashion trends are as irrelevant as ever. And I partially agree. The work of career trend forecasters (I do not count myself among them, btw) is often overshadowed by TikTok trend forecasting videos declaring every colour—from green to blue to red to yellow—as the trending colours of 2024. With the sheer volume of trend content being pushed at us, it is difficult to discern what genuinely is trending, what isn’t, and if there's even a point to trends anymore when there are so many of them. The inundation of trend content, the rapid trend cycle, and the phenomenon of items being both in and out of trend—depending on who you ask and who is wearing them—along with what I call "phantom aesthetics," have all made trend forecasting less... trendy.
When it comes to trend forecasting content, it’s a race to the top, which encourages the rapid and broad creation of such content. There is pressure to be the first to identify a trend and differentiate your content and your brain (look! I’m smarter than the other forecasters), leading to a faster and faster trend cycle because reiterating the same trend for the length that that trend may be relevant makes for uninteresting content. While trend articles in 2010s magazines typically described the same 6-10 trends each season, now, seemingly everything is trending. While I (and you, probably) know that multiple trends can exist at once, this isn’t the 6-10 trends of the 2010s anymore and there are seemingly dozens, if not hundreds, of trends you could tap into if you went through all of the trending trend forecasting content on TikTok.
This accelerated trend cycle and the race to be the first to spot, discuss, or showcase a trend can also lead to what I call "phantom trends." (If you have a better term for this, please let me know) Phantom trends appear online without any real-life substantiation, or are trends talked about in fashion news articles without being online OR in person. For example, last year, I saw numerous mentions of #europecore in news articles, with articles even criticising Americans for making up such an aesthetic. Yet, the trend barely registers online with only a few videos using and talking about it at all. It makes for a nice article, but was in fact, was not an online trend let alone an IRL one.
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Phantom aesthetics also relate to how we perceive massive online trends that are scarcely seen in person. In one of her videos, fashion creator Lani Ozark mentioned feeling tired of mini Uggs before ever seeing them in person (I couldn’t find the exact video, but the sentiment stuck with me). Major online trends like coquette or cottagecore garner millions of views online, and when you finally see someone embracing these aesthetics head-to-toe in real life, it's almost shocking—like they are flagging themselves as being perpetually online. Regardless, the fact that this is shocking diminishes the value of trend research, because the majority of discussed trends are virtually non-existent in everyday life. Of course, small parts of these trends are seen in everyday life, like the bows from coquette or the furs from the mob wife aesthetic — but these are generally a more watered down and realistic version of what the trend claims to be online.
Additionally, trends cycle so rapidly that items like skinny jeans, heeled sneakers, and Sperry's may be both in and out of trend, depending on who’s wearing them and how they are styled. Trends used to signify being slightly ahead, distinguishing oneself, and signalling I am cooler than you; now, it might just lump you back in with the masses. Are you wearing skinny jeans because of Miu Miu AW2024 or because you didn’t stop wearing them since 2015? AF1s are the perfect example of this whether they're worn as a continuation of the last time they were trending or as an "ironic" current trend depends entirely on the styling. However, this example in some way suggests that trends still hold relevance as it’s easy to distinguish between styling choices from 2024, 2020, 2016, etc.
These issues arise because trend forecasting itself is trending, and the constant barrage of content makes it challenging to discern which trends are worth attention.
Do I think trend forecasting is dead? No. But I do think that the days of just saying here are 5 trends for spring and then everyone listing the same 5 trends all over TikTok is dead. However, I do think there is still room for larger cultural and styling shifts to be predicted and discussed online. This of course, takes more than just saying this is trending but instead requires a deepdive into the history and nuance of the piece or aesthetic you are looking to predict. Just look at how impactful all of the 2023 girl-trends were in culture, feminism, and fashion. Imagine if you could predict a similar massive trend 1-5 years before it happened? That certainly, would be an excellent and worthwhile prediction.
That’s all for now! Thanks for reading ☀️
Molly
This was a great read! I've been thinking about this topic and wrote something similar.