The 12-Year Trend Cycle

And why it's pretty easy to make a trend prediction right now.

A small aside before getting into the article — but welcome to Style Analytics’ first substack post! This is a platform where I want to explore topics related to fashion and culture a bit deeper than I would be able to in a 30-to-90-second video. These posts will focus on fashion commentary, as well as the reasoning and research behind my long-term industry outlooks and predictions. Plus! Make sure to subscribe to access my monthly trend reports.

So — I was doing a deep dive into “historical” fashion trend reports and articles for an upcoming post (maybe a video, maybe an article) on horsey/equestrian fashion. On this journey, I came across this Huff Post article that outlined 7 key fashion trends for Fall/Winter 2012 and I was pretty surprised at how many of these trends/pieces/colours are being “predicted” as trends for 2024.

We are all well aware at this point that fashion trends are moving faster than ever, and we’ve started to see the traditional 30-year trend cycle being reduced to 20-years, then to 15, and now nearing 10. From setting Saltburn in 2006 (seemingly just to be able to stick in some nostalgic references), to trend forecasters and massive brands drawing inspiration from what was trending 10 to 15 years ago — myself included.

The similarities between 2012 and what we just saw on the FW24 runways are uncanny. As if someone at these major fashion houses was doing their research. 👀

To keep things somewhat objective, I’ll go through every trend discussed in the Huff Post article and compare them to fashion forecasts and collections from 2024. For each trend, I will assign myself a score out of 5, where a score of 5 indicates strong support for my theory (that the trend cycle is now 12 years), and a score of 0 suggests that the trend either hasn't resurfaced or is too prevalent to be deemed a trend at all.

Oxblood

Huff Post 2012: Burgundy red is the new black! Well deep oxblood red to be precise. The colour featured prominently in the Milan and New York 2012-13 Ready-to-wear runway shows - my top pick has to be a high gloss burgundy PVC raincoat.

2024: Following the cherry red trend of 2023, oxblood introduced a more mature take on the pop-of-red trend. “Re-launched” by Sabato de Santo’s Gucci debut for SS24, the colour was all over the FW24 runways: from YSL and Gucci to Burberry and Hermes. Uncanneyness/proving my point rating: 5/5

Clinched-In Waists

Huff Post 2012: It's official the classic sheath dress is not complete without a waist belt. The sophisticated 1940-50s silhouette makes reappearance this year, but with waists accentuated with skinny belts or wide statement belts. Knee-length pencil skirts are back again and so is the midi-skirt as at Roland Mouret, Saint Laurent, DSquared, Christian Dior, Versace and Valentino. Kate Beckinsale carried off the look to perfection on a promotional tour for Total Recall in London this August.

2024: This one's a bit on the fence. Back in 2023, we witnessed the return of waist-defining pieces like peplums, hourglass-enhancing blazers, and full A-line skirts. Now, from my perspective, although this trend initially picked up steam in 2012, it didn't completely die until around 2018. To me, this feels too soon for a revival, especially when there are so many other silhouettes to experiment with. So, even though waist-clinching pieces made their way to the 2022-2023 runways and popped up in fashion forecasts for 2023, they didn't catch on with the same fervour that they had back in 2012. Uncanneyness factor: 1/5.

Animal Print

Huff Post 2012: White Milan, a trade show for fashion buyers earlier this year, was full of leopard print and zebra - so expect to see plenty of spots and stripes in the stores this fall.

2024: Leopard print featured on several major Paris Fashion Week runways — like Dior, McQueen, and Bluemarine. Post-mob-wife, leopard and cheetah print has also made its way across every TikTok trend forecaster’s page in the last 4 months (including mine). Uncanneyness/proving my point rating: 5/5

Leather

Huff Post 2012: Fendi, Celine, Givenchy, Christian Dior, Gareth Pugh, Versace, Michael Kors all featured leather heavily in their fall/winter collections. The one item of clothing I really would invest in this season is a knee-length pencil skirt, whilst the classic biker jacket is another key wardrobe staple. Leather is also set to make an appearance as detailing either as pockets, collars, lapels, sleeves; and don't forget accessories - leather gloves anyone!

2024: Leather is obviously a staple more than it is a trend. However, the presence of cropped leather jackets at Khaite and Miu Miu, and the leather pencil skirts at Louis Vuitton are all giving 2012 energy. Uncanneyness ranking: 2.5/5

Florals

Huff Post 2012:The Dolce and Gabbana runway show went all out for gilt brocade, cherubs and large floral prints, lending their sultry black-clad Sicilian widow an ornate romanticism reminiscent of Sicily's Baroque churches. The floral trend is morphing from spring/summer into the fall by way of oversize prints, darker hues, rich fabrics and embroidery.

2024: You know what I want to say. 0/5.

Military

2012 Huff Post: Coats and jackets with epaulettes and statement brass buttons are another fall/winter 2012-13 trend to watch for. Whilst military greens like olive and khaki were popular at Max Mara and Victoria Beckham.

2024: Military-inspired silhouettes and pieces are one of those things that designers will always reference every season (I checked on Tag-Walker, it’s true), especially when you consider the impact that military surplus had on fashion post-WWII. (You can read more on that here.) However, it was interesting to see both the volume of military references this season, as well as how the two pieces that the Huff Post article mentioned were featured on multiple runways this season. First, we have cropped military blazers at Khaite and Tom Ford, and then we also have head-to-toe khakis featured heavily at Ferragamo, Dries Van Noten, Coach, Fendi, Isabel Marant, Lemaire, Burberry, and Balmain (a long list but I need to prove my point here). Uncanneyness value: 3/5.

Equestrian Fashion

Huff Post 2012: This trend has been around a while now, since at least 2005 when Kate Moss donned her Hunter's at Glastonbury, and it shows no sign of letting up. Givenchy has even given the equestrian trend a sexy reboot with a fetishized version, although it has little in common with the country look espoused by the Duchess of Cambridge. Nevertheless, jodhpurs, riding boots and plaid jackets with elbow patches are still going strong in 2012.

2024: Full article on this coming soon! Uncanneyness ranking: 5/5.

A constricted trend cycle

While this exploration may not be enough evidence to conclusively say: “The 30-year trend cycle is now a 12-year trend cycle!” — But! It's been intriguing to observe the connections, particularly seeing the revival of items that haven't been in style since the early 2010s. If we (as a collective) maintain the idea that there is a trend cycle that can be defined by a number of years, a 12-year-trend-cycle wouldn’t be a bad suggestion.

However, with the trend cycle being (sometimes) so short and so obvious, could this constriction signal the end of the trend cycle altogether? Many fashion journalists have been calling for this since the extreme TikTok microtrends of 2020, but it seems that now (more than ever) we are seeing every trend all at once: 60s, 70s, 90s, Y2K, 2016 they’re all having a “revival”. This, combined with our daily bombardment of short form content and seeing people online who are very much like us, there is (perhaps) an increased psychological need to express our individuality against what the algorithms are feeding us. Could this reach the point where trends no longer have any meaning in the next 5 years? I would love to talk and write and explore this potential collapse — so feel free to send me a DM on Instagram if you have strong feelings, opinions, or thoughts on this.

Implications for trend forecasting

I was in a meeting with a very smart and fashionable freelance client last week and she asked me: I get what’s going on in fashion right now, but when are we going to see something new?

And I’m sure that this sentiment explains how a lot of us are feeling right now — especially those of us who love fashion. If it is the case that *some* designers, journalists, and trend forecasters can do their jobs by simply referencing articles and collections from 10 or 15 years ago, then I don’t want any part of it (and you probably don’t either). While it’s fun to explore nostalgia in small quantities, this all needs to be balanced by experiencing something (anything!) new and creative. Similar to the discussions that a lot of us are having around AI right now, forecasters, designers, and creatives will only survive and stand apart from content that has already been created — content that AI does not have access to yet.

And that’s all for now! Stay tuned and subscribe for in-depth fashion commentary, long-term fashion forecasts, and monthly trend briefings where I take you into my *personal* notion file that outlines every trend that Style Analytics is currently tracking.

With love,

Molly

About the Author: Molly is a freelance fashion researcher, writer, and data analyst who combines these interests through her platform, Style Analytics. She is based in Amsterdam and collaborates with global fashion and beauty brands, offering market research and trend forecasting services.